How much SEO traffic could you lose to the rise of AI Overviews?

For each segment (branded, informational, commercial, local, transactional), the model applies :

• AIO presence rate — the rate shown for your industry corresponds to the published rate for informational queries in that industry (the query type that accounts for most AIO presence). Other segments are derived from this rate using multipliers: the transactional multiplier (0.60) is calibrated on the only sector-level data available on this point — e-commerce, where the AIO rate is 23% on informational queries versus 14% on shopping/transactional queries, a ratio of 0.61. The commercial (0.70) and branded (0.45) multipliers are qualitative modeling assumptions — the source doesn't publish sector-level detail for these intents — built from general observed trends (commercial sits between informational and transactional; branded/navigational remains largely unaffected). The local rate is capped between 4 and 10%, the range published for local queries, since the Local Pack competes with AIO there regardless of industry.
• CTR impact — derived from the published CTR drop for the industry (34 to 61% on average when an AIO appears), modulated by intent along the same principles: more pronounced for informational, more limited for transactional, local, and branded, where users click through regardless. These per-intent multipliers are also modeling assumptions, not broken down by industry in the source.
• Weighted impact = share of total traffic × AIO presence rate × CTR impact. The overall risk is the sum of the weighted impacts across the 5 segments.
• Estimated volume (if monthly traffic is entered) = segment weighted impact × monthly organic traffic entered. This is simply a projection of the percentage onto your current volume, not a measured figure: treat it as an order of magnitude to help prioritize your actions.

Note: the source also mentions that 88 to 96% of queries that trigger an AIO (across all industries) are informational in nature. This is a different figure from the per-industry AIO presence rate used here : it describes the composition of AIO-triggering queries, not the probability that a given query triggers one. It is therefore not used as a multiplier in this model.

This model remains a directional estimate built from aggregated industry benchmarks (BrightEdge, Semrush, seoClarity, Ahrefs, Seer Interactive, SE Ranking, Advanced Web Ranking), not a measurement of your actual exposure. To refine it, replace the AIO presence rates with SERP tracking data from your own keyword portfolio.